2016 U.S. Presidential Election: Canada’s Future Relationship with the USA?
August 31 2016
Paul Eitmant
It was difficult to find exact details of Hillary Clinton’s position concerning Canada. I did find the following statements.
“Hillary Clinton’s position on free trade? It’s (very) complicated.”
In a 2007 CNN debate, Clinton said NAFTA had been a mistake “to the extent that it did not deliver on what we had hoped it would.” Obama then accused Clinton of flip-flopping on NAFTA since her days in the White House, an accusation Politifact rated as “true.”
In 2016, I wouldn’t say Clinton was a huge cheerleader for NAFTA, but she did speak favourably of it. And now she says it needs to be fixed. Was running for president the cause of this switch, or was it a gradual change of thinking? It’s hard to say; the balance of evidence does not point to a harsh pivot point. However, we should note candidate Obama also criticized free trade agreements — the same things he’s trying to push his final months in office. He campaigned on renegotiating NAFTA and tried to hit Clinton hard on her relationship to the deal. “I want to be very clear: I don’t think NAFTA has been good for America, and I never have,” Obama said in Ohio in 2008 and 2016. Be aware if Clinton follows Obama lead.
In 2016 Clinton stated: “It doesn’t mean much at all. It’s a way of signalling to voters ‘I can do better in terms of making everybody happy,’ but it’s also a way of saying I’m not bound to past commitments. I will do more for you than my predecessors did.” Again, no details.
Clinton went on to say, “At this point almost everybody gets that everybody who says I’m going to renegotiate NAFTA doesn’t literally mean I’m going to renegotiate NAFTA.”
Reminds me of female version of Harvey Dent in the Batman movie.
The pipeline is critical to Canada, which needs infrastructure in place to export its growing oil sands production. Alberta has the world’s third largest oil reserves, with 170 billion barrels of proven reserves.
Clinton stated: “I did not see it nor should it be a proxy for the relationship. It is, after all, one pipeline. We already have a lot of pipelines that cross our border.”
Republican Party — Donald Trump
In the past 40 years I’ve never seen a presidential candidate act and/or talk like Donald Trump. It’s hard to pin Mr. Trump down for his true views on the future of trading goods and services with Canada.
I did find the following: Trump did tell CBC’s Meagan Fitzpatrick that he “loves Canada,” yet some of his pronouncements, particularly about trade, could have ramifications for Canada if he were to occupy the White House.
In a 60-minute interview last year, Trump declared that the North American Free Trade Agreement is “a disaster,” and that he would renegotiate it if elected president. He also opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Barack Obama-led deal with Pacific Rim countries, minus China, that was recently signed but not ratified by Canada.
What’s more, he appears to be onside with his Republican rivals when it comes to supporting the Keystone XL pipeline, and the oil industry in general.
Trump has said that he supported TransCanada’s proposed Keystone XL pipeline project that the Obama administration rejected late last year. In his book, “Crippled America,” Trump called Obama’s opposition to the 2,000-kilometre pipeline an “outrage.” The project, which if approved would have carried crude oil from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf coast, is one of the few projects where Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may be on the same page. During the 2015 campaign, Trudeau’s Liberals said they were in favour of Keystone XL pipeline, and when it was rejected, he expressed “disappointment.” However, Trudeau also said that the “Canada-U.S. relationship is bigger than any one project.”
Bottom line: neither candidate has given specific details on the Canada/U.S. relationship for the future. I can only state that if Clinton wins the election I foresee she will continue Obama’s policies.
If Trump wins the election it would be had to say what actions if any he would put on the table. Trump has a business background and I do not believe he would try to undo the automotive agreements. However, the oil pipeline issue could be issue to secure for both Canada and US parties.
Paul Eitmant is President and CEO of IP Group International, which serves the needs of business-to-business enterprises in over 30 countries worldwide by adding specialized expertise to the business planning and implementation process; Tel: 480.488.5646; paulipgroup@cox.net.
